Macroeconomic stability factors of the USD/MAD exchange rate in the context of an open Moroccan economy
Mots-clés :ARDL, exchange rate, direct foreign investments, external public debt, interest rate
This article aims to analyze the factors of the USD/MAD exchange rate in Morocco for the period from 1980 to 2018. We have used the ARDL model to verify the long-term stable relationship for a threshold of 1% between the USD/MAD exchange rate and its explanatory variables.
The results of our study show that in a long-term perspective, direct foreign investments, the money stock (M3), and the interest rate have a positive impact on the USD/MAD exchange rate, whereas the consumer price index, the exchange reserves, and the stock of external public debt have a negative impact on the USD/MAD exchange rate.
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