Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Morocco: Between Vulnerability and Resilience.

Résumé

Abstract

This paper investigates the trajectory of agricultural revenues in Morocco between 1995 and 2021, with the aim of elucidating the intricate relationships among vulnerability and resilience to climate change and agricultural economic performance. Agricultural revenues are analysed in relation to two main sets of independent variables: vulnerability and resilience. The assessment of resilience is grounded in a range of indicators, encompassing economic, social, and governance aspects. Conversely, vulnerability is examined through key dimensions such as the sensitivity of health, food security, ecosystems, human habitation, water resources, and infrastructure. The methodological approach employs an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and vector error correction model (VECM) to capture the long-term interactions and dynamics among these variables. The results reveal that the effects of vulnerability are significantly more pronounced than those of resilience. The agricultural sector is more susceptible to vulnerability, with a relatively lower capacity for resilience. The insights derived from this research are expected to contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors affecting agricultural revenues in Morocco. Furthermore, the findings hold potential for informing policy recommendations aimed at enhancing the resilience of the agricultural sector within the unique context of the country.

Keywords: Climate change; Vulnerability; Resilience; Agricultural revenues; Morocco